Election Predictions: A Tough Contest Ahead for the ANC
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By AFRICA KA MAHAMBA
WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT elections approaching, the political landscape points to a difficult contest for the African National Congress (ANC), particularly in Gauteng’s three metropolitan municipalities: Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg. The South African Communist Party (SACP) has added to the pressure on the ANC by deciding to contest the elections independently. The SACP, however, has the right to stand on its own and compete for votes.
I predict that the SACP will receive less than 2% of the vote in each of Gauteng’s metropolitan municipalities. However, it could take votes from the ANC in municipalities in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is likely to retain control of Cape Town and several other municipalities in the Western Cape. Given the DA’s strong support in the province, the ANC faces an uphill battle to dislodge it.
Gauteng’s municipalities and Nelson Mandela Bay are likely to remain coalition battlegrounds. The ANC may have a better chance of taking control in several municipalities elsewhere, with eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal standing out as a stronghold for Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, according to my projections.
Gauteng
Gauteng has three metropolitan municipalities—Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane—as well as the Sedibeng and West Rand district municipalities.
Across Gauteng, I predict that the ANC will receive 52%, the DA 18%, the MK Party 12%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 10%, ActionSA 5%, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) 2%, and other parties a combined 1%.
In Tshwane, the ANC is projected to receive about 39%, followed by the DA on 35%, the EFF on 8%, the MK Party on 7% and ActionSA on 7%. Other parties are expected to share the remaining 4%. These figures suggest that the EFF could emerge as kingmaker in Tshwane.
In Johannesburg, I project the ANC at 33%, the DA at 30%, ActionSA at 10%, the EFF at 8%, the MK Party at 7% and the SACP at 1%. Other parties could share the remaining 11%. ActionSA may therefore hold the balance of power in the city.
In Ekurhuleni, the ANC is projected to receive 45%, the DA 11%, the EFF 8%, the MK Party 7%, ActionSA 7%, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) 3%, the SACP 2%, and other parties a combined 17%. The ANC could seek a coalition with the SACP, the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) and other parties.
Limpopo
In Limpopo, I expect the EFF to make unexpected gains in the Capricorn, Mopani and Sekhukhune districts. Nevertheless, I predict that the ANC will win all five district municipalities in the province.
My provincial projection puts the ANC at 60%, the EFF at 21%, the DA at 10% and ActionSA at 5%, with other parties sharing the remaining 4%.
Mpumalanga
In Mpumalanga, I predict that the ANC will win the Ehlanzeni, Nkangala and Gert Sibande district municipalities. However, smaller parties, including the African People’s Convention (APC), and independent candidates could gain support amid dissatisfaction over service delivery.
My projected provincial vote is 52% for the ANC, 17% for the EFF, 10% for the MK Party, 10% for the DA, 5% for ActionSA and 2% for the APC. Other parties are projected to share 4%.
North West
North West, often referred to as the Platinum Province, has four district municipalities: Bojanala, Ngaka Modiri Molema, Dr Ruth Segomotsi Mompati and Dr Kenneth Kaunda.
I expect the EFF to make gains in Bojanala, particularly in Madibeng and Moses Kotane. The Bophuthatswana Civil Movement (BCM) could also reduce the ANC’s vote, potentially securing an unexpected level of support in Bojanala and Ngaka Modiri Molema.
My projection for North West is 49% for the ANC, 28% for the EFF, 9% for the DA and 5% for the BCM. The MK Party is projected to receive 3%, while other parties could share 6%.
Free State
The Free State, formerly known as the Orange Free State, has one metropolitan municipality, the City of Mangaung, and four district municipalities: Fezile Dabi, Thabo Mofutsanyana, Lejweleputswa and Xhariep.
I expect the Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus) to make gains in the province. My projection gives the ANC 60%, the DA 21%, the FF Plus 10% and the EFF 5%, with other parties sharing the remaining 4%.
Northern Cape
The Northern Cape is South Africa’s largest province by area, but it has a relatively small population. Its five district municipalities are Francis Baard, Namakwa, Pixley ka Seme, ZF Mgcawu and John Taolo Gaetsewe.
The figures in my Northern Cape projection are 68% for ANC, 13% for the DA, 6% for the FF Plus, 5% for the EFF and 3% for ActionSA, with other parties sharing 5%.
Western Cape
The Western Cape remains one of the ANC’s most challenging provinces. It has one metropolitan municipality, the City of Cape Town, and five district municipalities: West Coast, Cape Winelands, Overberg, Garden Route and Central Karoo.
The ANC, EFF and other parties with strong support among Black voters are likely to continue attracting votes in townships such as Nyanga, Langa, Philippi and Gugulethu. However, I do not expect these votes to be enough to dislodge the DA from its dominant position in the province.
My projection for the Western Cape gives the DA 52%, the ANC 29%, the PA 8%, the EFF 5% and the United Democratic Movement (UDM) 3%. Other parties are expected to share the remaining 3%.
Eastern Cape
Nelson Mandela Bay is likely to remain a coalition battleground, much like Tshwane and Johannesburg. Despite the competition, I believe the ANC has a chance of taking control, potentially with the support of the EFF or the UDM.
The Eastern Cape’s district municipalities include Amathole, Chris Hani, Joe Gqabi, OR Tambo, Alfred Nzo and Sarah Baartman.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, I project the ANC at 49%, the DA at 20%, the UDM at 8%, the PA at 7%, the EFF at 6% and ActionSA at 4%. The PAC is projected to receive 1%, while other parties could share 5%.
Buffalo City is likely to remain under ANC control, although the DA is expected to mount a strong challenge. My projection for Buffalo City gives the ANC 52%, the DA 22%, the EFF 9%, the PA 6%, the UDM 4% and the PAC 2%, with other parties sharing 5%.
Across the Eastern Cape, I project the ANC at 57%, the DA at 16%, the EFF at 9%, ActionSA at 6%, the PA at 3% and the UDM at 2%. Other parties are projected to share 7%.
KwaZulu-Natal
KwaZulu-Natal has one metropolitan municipality, eThekwini, and a number of district municipalities. The districts named in the original projection are Ugu, uMgungundlovu, uThukela, uMzinyathi, uMkhanyakude, King Cetshwayo, iLembe and Harry Gwala.
In eThekwini, I predict that the MK Party will receive 43%, the ANC 25%, the IFP 14%, the DA 9% and the EFF 3%. Other parties are projected to share 6%.
Across the district municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, my projection gives the MK Party 41%, the ANC 28%, the IFP 15%, the DA 9% and the EFF 4%, with other parties sharing the remaining 3%.
About the writer:-Africa Ka Mahamba is the editor of City Post. The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication
