DON'T POP THAT CHAMPAGNE YET! GAUTENG IS ON FIRE — AND NOBODY HAS WON ANYTHING!

By AFRICA KA MAHAMBA

I HAD AN hour-long telephonic conversation with a friend who is a member of ActionSA and he was bragging about the latest election results. I told him to relax. This is just a warm-up.

You cannot celebrate results with 20 percent counted. He is not the only one who started popping champagne. I saw many posts on X and Facebook and I could not hold my laughter. At the same time, I see that this year's local government elections are like hell.

This is not an election. This is a war.

South Africans went to vote on Wednesday, 4 November 2026. By Thursday morning, 5 November, the whole country was staring at the IEC dashboard like it was a soccer scoreboard. And the scoreboard is shocking the ancestors.

Let us start with the NATIONAL picture, because that is where the real earthquake is happening.

As of 10:40am on Thursday, with 6,396 of 23,696 voting districts counted — that is 26% — the ANC was leading nationally with 32.9% of the ward ballot, followed by the DA on 28.62%. 

At 08:01 that same morning, it was even tighter. The ANC had 31.36% and the DA had 31.04% — a difference of just 10,627 votes. By 12:20pm, with 31% counted, the ANC was on 32.18% nationally and the DA second on 27.94%. 

Read that again. The ANC, the party that got 45.59% in 2021, is now fighting for its life at 32%. The DA, which got 21.62% in 2021, has jumped to around 28% to 31%. The MK Party, contesting its first local election, is third nationally on 5.43% to 6.52%, followed by the EFF on 4.93% to 5.2%. 

If these numbers hold, it will be the worst result in ANC history. And the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), working with the SABC, is projecting the ANC could finish on about 32% nationally, with the DA on 26%. Those are projections, not results. But even the projections are saying: the liberation giant is bleeding.

Now come to Gauteng. Gauteng is where the ANC is getting a sjambok.

In Gauteng, the DA was leading with 37.04%, followed by the ANC with 20.42% and ActionSA with 15.53%. Gauteng — the economic heart of South Africa, the province of Soweto, Alexandra, Tembisa, Mamelodi. The ANC is on 20%? Aowa banna! 

TSHWANE: ACTIONSA ON TOP — FOR NOW

In Tshwane, when I wrote this piece, ActionSA was on top leading with 29%, ANC 28.1%, DA 21.1%, EFF 7.1% and VF Plus 5%. These counts are from suburbs and semi-rural areas and they are still at about 20 percent counting.

By 10:00, the picture was almost the same: ActionSA 29.01%, ANC 28.08% and DA 19.32%. 

But listen to me, Muzi. What will happen when they count the townships where every party is biting the dust? ActionSA, EFF and DA might penetrate the townships but they won't make it in a single ward easily. 

I am talking about Mabopane, Winterveldt, Ga-Rankuwa, Hammanskraal, Soshanguve, Atteridgeville, Mamelodi and others.

That is why eNCA is now projecting something different for the FINAL result in Tshwane: DA to finish biggest with 33 to 37%, ActionSA 20 to 24%, ANC third with 18 to 22%. 

Do you hear that? The early lead may not survive the township count. Tshwane has been ruled by coalitions since 2016, with mayors changing like taxi drivers. 

No party will get 50%+1. Another coalition is loading.

To my ActionSA friend Muzi, I don't think Dr Nasiphi Moya will return to Tshwane House as executive mayor easily. She has made enemies with the male gender by closing strategic drinking holes also doubling as massage parlours for men which serve as therapy for a number of men.

I remember how men started complaining about the new female mayor who hates men by closing their very strategic meeting places where beer flows like the river of Babylon.

If you don't understand me, you are a slow learner. She shut down Ipi Tombi, Divorosong, Cow Boy, Capital Inn and others, as they are mentioned when we are busy eliminating the brown and green ones with hops and barley.

She was even on top of the agenda at this year's Men's Conference. I have never seen a mayor hated by men like this.

But not all men hated her, Muzi, and some ActionSA supporters will do anything to see her back at Tshwane House. To add salt on top of the wounds, there comes the Bronkhorstspruit water issue. Awa banna, dia boa.Otla boa, Dr.m

JOBURG: GOG' HELLEN IS WHIPPING EVERYBODY

Let me jump to Jozi Maboneng, kwa ndonga ziya duma, ka nyama kai pheli kuphela amazinyo endoda. City of Joburg.

It is still early even in Joburg, but I am not impressed the way it is getting a sjambok from Gog' Hellen. Gog' Hellen's DA is leading with 40.7%, ANC 17.5%, ActionSA 16.6%, EFF 6.4% and MK Party 4.4%. 

At 10:00, it was DA 40.33%, ANC 16.77% and ActionSA 15.46%, EFF 6.22%. 

This is not good at all. But things will change when they count Soweto and the rest of Alexandra. If this becomes worse for Joburg, Ntate Mashaba has no option but to open a hair salon and forget about being the mayor of Joburg again.

Mashaba was mayor from 2016 to 2019. He wants a comeback. But Helen Zille, the DA's candidate, is not playing.

I was impressed when ANC chair Gwede Mantashe said townships have not been counted yet: "We may improve. Major areas, townships, and other areas have not been counted yet."

On the other side, DA Joburg mayoral candidate Gog' Hellen Zille said: "It's early days... but I think we will do well and I am very excited."

Both are right. Only 9% to 15% of Joburg's 862 voting districts were counted by Thursday morning. In 2021, ANC won Joburg with 33.60% and DA was second with 26.14%. So DA is up, ANC is down, but Soweto has not spoken yet.

One analyst, Tara Roos, said the ANC's support at the Apostolic Faith Mission voting district in Dlamini, Soweto, had fallen from 37% to 18%. If that is true in the whole of Soweto, then the ANC is in deep, deep trouble. 

EKURHULENI: DA LEADS, ANC CHASING SHADOWS

Even in Ekurhuleni, the ANC didn't start well, but I know it might improve — but it will not reach 50%. In Ekurhuleni, DA leads by 43.7%, ActionSA 19%, ANC 15.6%, FF Plus on fourth place and EFF on fifth.

At 10:00, it was DA 42.39%, ANC 15.57% and ActionSA 15.04%.

Again, eNCA projects the FINAL Ekurhuleni result will be much tighter: DA 27 to 31%, ANC 20 to 24%, ActionSA 15 to 19%. That means DA's early 42% will drop when Tembisa, Daveyton, Vosloorus, Katlehong and Thokoza come in. 

In 2021, ANC was biggest in Ekurhuleni with 86 seats, DA had 65, EFF 31. ANC needed 113 seats to govern alone. It never got there. It will not get there now either.

THE LIBERATION MOVEMENTS ARE BLEEDING

I am not impressed with the performance of the ANC. In fact, I am not impressed with the performance of all liberation movements, which include PAC and AZAPO. I nearly forgot the SACP, because it also played a big role in our struggle.

These liberation movements, which are now political parties, deserve better for their contribution to the struggle.

People are now liberated, and now they are showing these great liberation movements a middle finger. But it is not surprising. It happened to UNIP in Zambia, MCP in Malawi and KANU in Kenya.

Zambia's UNIP ruled 27 years, from 1964 to 1991, before Frederick Chiluba beat Kenneth Kaunda. Malawi's MCP ruled 30 years, from 1964 to 1994, before Bakili Muluzi beat Hastings Banda. Kenya's KANU ruled 39 years, from 1963 to 2002, before Mwai Kibaki ended it.

ANC has ruled 32 years. It is sitting right inside that 27 to 39-year danger zone. History is knocking.

But let me be honest as a journalist: DO NOT CELEBRATE YET. These are early results. The IEC will only announce official final results on Sunday, 8 November. 

Counting, capturing and verification are still going on. Townships, rural areas and big voting districts in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal are still outstanding. 

The real winners will not be decided on Thursday morning. They will be decided in coalition boardrooms in the next two weeks.

So, to my friend Muzi, to Helen, to Mashaba, to all of you popping champagne: Put the bottle back in the fridge. The warm-up is over. The real match starts now.

About the writer

About the writer: Africa Ka Mahamba is the editor of City Post. The views expressed in this column are the writer's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication.